According to all the information we receive, the current downturn in the U.S. economy may develop into a prolonged recession. Downside risk is high enough to warrant precautions. The standard defense would be a high-quality, long-duration bond portfolio; when the economy is weak, interest rates decline and prices of long-term bonds rise. To be sure, Treasury bond yields would decline further if the economy deteriorates, but they are already quite low by historical standards.