Republicans are poised for small gains in the House, polls suggest

However, keeping Democratic prospects strong through November is not guaranteed. In 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018, the president’s party typically lost seats in Congress. Also, redistricting leaves some seats for Democrats.

The margin of error in CBS News’ seat estimates for each party is +/- 18 seats, and the chamber’s majority is 218 seats.

According to CBS’ election watcher, the apparent shift in voter focus may be due to abortion rights, falling gas prices and what the network calls the “Donald Trump factor.” The former president has dominated headlines again at times this month following an FBI search of his Mar-a-Lago home that was part of an investigation into the alleged mishandling of White House documents.

“Abortion is going to be very important,” Harrison said, adding that the issue is “about liberty.”

In the same poll, President Joe Biden’s approval rating rose three points to 45 percent compared to 42 percent in July, and his disapproval rating — still the majority — fell by the same amount from 58 percent to 55 percent. Biden’s job ratings on the economy, gas prices and inflation all improved, though only a third of Americans believe Democrats have a plan to fight inflation, “Face the Nation” host Major Garrett noted Sunday.

Democrats have been buoyed in recent months by unexpectedly strong performances in special elections, including Pat Ryan’s victory. In a special election Tuesday in upstate New York. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Beltola is ahead In a special election for the state’s congressional seat, the state’s ranked-choice voting could eventually push him out of the front-runner.

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The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,126 registered voters interviewed Aug. 24-26, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 points. CBS’ estimates of House seats are based on a Multilevel regression and posterior stratification model That includes voter responses.

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