SF reveals the main reason for the expulsion of neighboring voter data

Chesa Boudin defeated her rival Suzy Loftus in her 2019 election by a landslide. Less than 2%. On Tuesday, San Francisco rejected Poud by a large margin: Preliminary results indicate that about 60% of voters voted to recall the controversial district attorney.

This is because of the chronological analysis of the initial neighborhood-level data that shows who came forward to vote this time. Although the turnout for Tuesday’s election will be similar to that of Bowdin’s early election, areas in which Bowdin received less support in 2019 were higher than those around him.

The Chronicle examined the share of voters in the neighborhood in the 2019 election and compared it with the turnout of their constituents on Tuesday. Neighbors who voted for one of Boudin’s challenges in 2019, including Sunset, Marina and Pacific Heights, had a larger share of the electorate in the 2022 election than they did in 2019.

The Western Twin Peaks and the Sunset saw the largest increase in turnout, from 16.7% of the total electorate in 2019 to 18.7% in 2022. Both of these neighborhoods voted strongly in favor of the recall: 67% of voters in the West Twin Peaks voted in favor of 70% of the Sunset voters, with a yes in the measurement H.

Meanwhile, the neighborhoods that were seen as Boudin castles – Mission, Hyde and North Bernal Heights, for example – all saw their share of the voter decline in 2022. The mission, which will surround the city’s largest bout, is huge. The turnout was down from 6.3% to 5.1%.

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The data is still preliminary: it includes only postal ballot papers issued before election day and votes cast in person on election day, which could add up to almost 60% of the expected total, according to the Elections Department. And 40% or more of the votes are to be counted from the votes received by mail Election Department on Election Day Or in the coming days. To make our analysis as close to Apple as possible, we examined the number of ballots from the last reported data on the nights of the 2019 and 2022 elections.

It is difficult to directly compare these two elections in terms of the sentiments of the people around Poutin or the overall public security of the city. Unlike Tuesday’s election, which largely ended up being about one candidate, the 2019 election prompted voters to vote for the mayor, DA, city attorney, public defender, sheriff and many more in the year leading up to the presidential election.

More about the Chesa Boudin recall

While the turnout for this election was initially expected to be very low in terms of initial revenue rates, the Department of Elections expects the turnout to be 46% among registered voters now, when measuring how many people voted by post before Election Day. 42% of the rate seen in the 2019 election, and more than the 36% ratio February School Board Memorial.

As in 2019, Bowden’s support on Tuesday Came first From the high-scoring campuses in the Chronicle Progressive voter code, Which uses the voting history of each constituency in different ballot operations. The PVI Index shows that city hubs such as Hyde, Mission and Bernal Heights – vote more gradually than those on its outer edge such as Lake Mercedes, Visitacian Valley and Marina.

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These out-of-center neighborhoods, which voted against Boudin in 2019, also voted against him on Tuesday. But this time, they were joined by several neighborhoods that voted for Bowden in 2019, including Pavio, Tenderloin and Richmond.

Susie Nielsen is a staff writer for the San Francisco Chronicle, and Nami Sumita is a chronological data visualization developer. Email: [email protected], [email protected] Twitter: susieneilson, Namisumita

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